What Would It Take To Bottom In October?
What Would It Take To Bottom In October?
There is a month circled on almost every Bitcoin chart in the world right now. October. Four-year cycle, bear market low, the big one.
We have been saying October ourselves for the better part of two years, and the date MANTIS points at is the 25th.
So here is an awkward thing we have had to sit with. On our count, there is no cycle low due in October. Not a small one. Not a big one. None.
Two clocks, not one
Bitcoin runs on two clocks at once, and most of the arguments online are people reading one and answering the other.
The big clock is the four-year cycle. Underneath it runs a weekly cycle — a rhythm of roughly seven or eight months, low to low, ticking away the whole time.
So the question stops being when do I feel like the bottom is due, and becomes: where are the weekly cycle lows?
What is actually in the window
MANTIS puts the four-year window from 7 June this year to 14 March next, optimal date 25 October. It is a wide window on purpose — nobody should be pretending to know the week.
Inside it there are two candidates. The low that already happened, back in June. And the one due between 11 January and 8 February.
October sits between them. Around day 100 of a cycle that runs a little over 200 days. That is the middle, not the end.
”But my count says October”
Plenty of people have a different count where October lands beautifully, and that deserves a straight answer rather than a shrug. The count is the argument — get it wrong and everything downstream is wrong with it.
So the video walks a fork we had to take ourselves, back in August 2024, when the yen carry trade unwound and Bitcoin traded down to 49,000. Obvious cycle low. Big scary candle. Except the low we actually use came a month later, and it is higher.
That looks mad until you count forward. If your count still puts a low in October — show us the intervals. That is the only argument that counts.
The best argument against ourselves
Let us be exact about the claim, because it is smaller than people assume. Two candidates, and the analysis does not pick between them.
The two completed four-year cycles ran 1,431 days and 1,437 days. Six days apart. The second of those contained the covid crash — the fastest collapse this asset has ever had — and still finished within six days of the one before it.
Measured against that, June is about four months short of both. January would be about three months long. So on interval evidence, January is the better fit and June is the outlier. That is real, and we cannot argue it away.
▶ Watch the full video: youtu.be/uwUQKIiVC7g
Important Disclaimer This post and the video it accompanies are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. MANTIS is a cycle analysis tool, not a signal service. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and only ever risk what you can afford to lose.
Stay patient. Stay focused. Be the mantis.
See you at the low.