The Entry That Never Comes
The Entry That Never Comes
Three things happened to Bitcoin inside one week.
A crypto bill the whole market was watching failed its vote in the Senate. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates. And the US ten-year yield closed at five percent — the first time since 2007, before Bitcoin existed.
Any one of those is a headline. All three in a week is a story that writes itself.
And through all of it, Bitcoin did not close a single day below its 200-day moving average. Not once since 19 August.
Four stories, one vote
Before that vote, we wrote down what people would say afterwards. Not two explanations. Four.
Passes and price rises — it’s the catalyst. Passes and price falls — sell the news. Fails and price rises — the regulators were getting there anyway. Fails and price falls — dead for this year.
Every outcome, already explained. The vote failed, and within the hour two of those four went live at once, in the same thread, from two serious accounts drawing opposite conclusions from the same event.
This isn’t a criticism of the people writing them. The mechanics are real — higher yields genuinely do tighten conditions. But look at what the narrative actually does. A story that explains every outcome explains none of them. It explains the depth of a move. It has never once set the date.
What is actually due in October
October is everyone’s month, and MANTIS puts the four-year window’s optimal date at 25 October ourselves.
So here is what our count actually has due that month: a daily cycle low. That’s it. The bigger low — the weekly cycle low that could carry a four-year bottom — isn’t due until January.
Something is genuinely due in October. It’s just a great deal smaller than the thing everybody is waiting for, and that gap is where most of the arguments online live.
The bid that never gets filled
A lot of people are waiting for a price below the June low of $57,800 before they buy. It’s an understandable wish — nobody wants to buy the top of a bounce.
But twice now, at this point after a four-year low, the price below the low simply did not arrive. Even covid — the fastest collapse this asset has ever had — stopped well short of the previous four-year low. We’re honest in the video about why: covid hit with a far bigger cushion than we have today, so it isn’t a promise.
And nobody gets the low. We didn’t. Our first tranche went in on 12 June at $63,580, published the same day — about ten percent above where the bottom printed — and inside three weeks it was nine percent underwater. Buying near a bottom doesn’t feel clever. It feels like a mistake, for weeks. Waiting below the low is an attempt to skip that feeling, and twice in a row it hasn’t filled.
What would make us wrong
$57,800. If price prints below the June low, our opinion that June was the four-year bottom is wrong — and the count that says the next weekly low is due in January still stands, because one is a claim about the clock and the other is a claim about direction.
An update since the video was recorded, and it runs in the video’s favour. The episode worked from a daily-cycle high of $82,300 on 3 September. Bitcoin has since made a new high for this cycle — $87,396 on 21 September. So the fall needed to revisit June is now about 34%, not the 30% quoted on screen, and the cushion over the June low has grown from roughly 1.4× to about 1.5×.
The odds don’t change. Among the daily cycles within a year of a four-year low, three of twelve fell that far — still about one in four. The point of that section stands, and a little more strongly: the variable is the cushion, not the volatility.
▶ Watch the full video: youtu.be/jAmvHh3JfIY
Important Disclaimer This post and the video it accompanies are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. MANTIS is a cycle analysis tool, not a signal service. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and only ever risk what you can afford to lose.
Stay patient. Stay focused. Be the mantis.
See you at the low.