State of Bitcoin: Everyone Is Calling The Bitcoin Bottom

Nine sessions up. Back above the 200-week average. And every timeline we follow has decided the bottom is in.

We would love that to be true. We own this stuff.

But there is one number that will not leave us alone.

▶ Watch it here: youtu.be/3JxMCs-thOE

Sentiment turns before structure does. That is not a criticism of sentiment. It is just the order things happen in.

Forty-four

Bitcoin has had three proper bear markets ending in a four-year low.

Fifty-nine weeks, top to bottom. Fifty-two weeks. Fifty-four weeks.

Not identical. But not scattered either.

Today is week forty-four.

So if the bottom went in this month, this would be the shortest bear market in Bitcoin’s history — by roughly two months. That is not impossible. Bitcoin hands out curveballs; last cycle it made a new all-time high before the halving when every previous cycle put the high afterwards.

But it is the claim being made, and nobody making it seems to mention that part.

Run fifty-two, fifty-four and fifty-nine forward from last October and you land in October and November this year. That is not us arguing for our own calendar. That is the history turning up at the same place on its own.

The other tell

Saylor is doing the podcasts your mum has heard of. There is a hardware wallet on a Premier League shirt. A blockchain is sponsoring the World Series of Poker.

That is genuinely what adoption looks like when it stops being a subculture. We are not sneering at it.

But ask when that stuff turns up.

Nobody signs a shirt sponsorship at the bottom. It gets signed once the mood has lifted enough that a marketing department can approve it.

Fear draining out, and price finishing going down, are two different events. People mix them up constantly — and the gap between the two is where most of the damage gets done.

The argument that cannot lose

There is a clever take doing the rounds: everyone expects October, markets never hand you the obvious, so it will bottom early to wrong-foot the lot of us.

It sounds sophisticated. Here is the problem with it.

Bottoms early — that argument was right. Bottoms in October — the consensus was right. Bottoms in January — the front-runners were simply too soon.

There is no outcome that makes it wrong.

And an idea that cannot be wrong is not analysis. It is a mood with a chart attached.

One event, two names

Two worries doing the rounds at the moment. Bitcoin drops to the 300-week average. Or the next cycle low prints beneath June’s $57.8K.

Now look at where those two actually sit.

The 300-week average is below the June low. You cannot reach one without going through the other.

They are not two scenarios. They are one event described from both ends.

Which should make the scary number less frightening, not more. If we are going to the 300-week, we take out June on the way. If we take out June, the 300-week is what is underneath.

Every level is either support or a better entry.

The appointment

Bitcoin runs a weekly cycle, roughly seven months low to low. June’s was confirmed at $57.8K. The next one projects into January.

That is when this argument gets settled.

If January prints higher than June, that is the bull confirmed. A higher low on the weekly cycle is how every bull market this asset has ever had announced itself. That is structure, not a hunch.

If it prints lower, we are still hunting. Not a disaster — just not finished. And a lower low in January is not automatically the low: the four-year window runs to March. January either confirms, or it extends the search.

There is no third door.

The receipt

We think this bottoms in the autumn or later. We might be wrong.

So rather than leave that hanging as an opinion, we did something about it in June. Half the war chest went in — the twelfth, at $63,580. Published before the fact, not after.

Bitcoin then traded below where we bought.

We are telling you that deliberately. An opinion can be quietly revised and nobody keeps the receipt. A position has a date and a price, and everyone can see it when it goes against you.

That is the whole point of doing this in public.

▶ Watch the full video: youtu.be/3JxMCs-thOE

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Important Disclaimer This post and the video it accompanies are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. MANTIS is a cycle analysis tool, not a signal service. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and only ever risk what you can afford to lose.

Stay patient. Stay focused. Be the mantis.

See you at the low.