Either Way, We're Buying
Either Way, We’re Buying
MicroStrategy topped in November 2024. Bitcoin did not top until October 2025.
Eleven months apart — and you can check that on any chart in about thirty seconds.
That is not a coincidence. It is what a leveraged holding company does: it turns at both ends before the thing it holds. Which makes October rather more interesting than most people watching MicroStrategy realise.
A different company
At the last bear market low, MicroStrategy was a software company that had borrowed heavily to buy Bitcoin, and the whole conversation was about survival. Could it service the debt? What if Bitcoin halved again?
That was a real question then. It is not now. The company spent this cycle restructuring what it is — from a business with a Bitcoin position into a business whose product is access to Bitcoin, aimed at people who will never open a wallet in their lives.
We are not going to read out balance sheet figures we have not verified. We will stick to things you can check — and every cycle number in the video is checkable on a chart in about five minutes.
The flywheel only spins one way
When the stock trades at a premium to the Bitcoin behind it, issuing shares to buy more Bitcoin leaves every existing shareholder with more Bitcoin per share than before. That is the flywheel, and it is not a trick.
But at no premium, issuing shares just dilutes people to stand still. So the buying slows — which is exactly what a disciplined operator should do. If they kept buying at no premium, that would be the worrying signal. Not the pause.
What the projection actually measures
Here is the part that was genuinely surprising.
MANTIS does not forecast MicroStrategy’s share price. It forecasts how much Bitcoin one share is worth, and only at the end multiplies by whatever Bitcoin costs.
That ratio has been falling. So two forces pull against each other: Bitcoin rising lifts the share, the falling ratio drags it down.
It is called premium decay, and it is not an opinion about the company. It is a measured trend in how the market prices the wrapper against the thing inside it.
Which raises the strongest objection to our own strategy. If MicroStrategy bleeds against Bitcoin, why own it instead of Bitcoin? Because of what happens on the way up. The bet is not that MicroStrategy is a good company — it is that the leverage beats the leak.
Why October is bigger than MSTR
MicroStrategy’s next cycle low is due mid-October to early November. Bitcoin’s own is not due until January.
So October is not just MicroStrategy’s low. It is the early read on Bitcoin’s — roughly twelve weeks of warning, for anyone who knows to look at it.
▶ Watch the full video: youtu.be/2VxWKE7_k6E
Important Disclaimer This post and the video it accompanies are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. MANTIS is a cycle analysis tool, not a signal service. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and only ever risk what you can afford to lose.
Stay patient. Stay focused. Be the mantis.
See you at the low.