Bitcoin: The Date Arrived

For two years we’ve pointed at one date on the calendar: 25 October 2026, the optimal date for Bitcoin’s four-year cycle low. Not a guess. Arithmetic.

The date arrived. And there was nothing on it. No crash, no capitulation, no bottom. Just an ordinary Sunday in the middle of a cycle.

So this one does the honest thing: where the date came from, why the low didn’t turn up for it, and which clock to trust.

The metronome

The last three four-year lows: January 2015, December 2018, November 2022. The gaps between them are forty-seven months, then forty-seven months again, within a week of each other.

Lay that same gap down from November 2022 and you land on one day: 25 October 2026.

It was always a window, not a day. MANTIS puts the four-year window from June 2026 to March 2027. The date is just where a low is most likely to be found.

What was on the date

In September we said the four-year low has to land on a weekly cycle low, and on our count there was no weekly low due in October. Only two inside the whole window: June, and the one due in January.

October brought a low, but a small one: a daily cycle low on 15 October at $79,800, inside its 3–17 October window, confirmed on the 20 October daily close. That’s about 38% above June’s low. Nowhere near a new bottom.

And this time the metronome breaks either way. If June was the bottom, this cycle came in about four months short. If January turns out lower, it runs about three months long. The one date the metronome pointed at was the one date the weekly clock never offered.

Update since recording: on 24 October Bitcoin wicked to $79,221, just under the 15 October low, then closed back above it. Tested, not broken. As of 26 October no daily close has gone below $79,800. A close below it would mean this daily cycle failed early, and we’ll say so if it does.

The size shrinks, the clock doesn’t

Top to bottom, every bear market: −85%, −84%, −77%, and this time, so far, −54%. Smaller falls, smaller rallies. That’s what a maturing asset does.

What didn’t shrink is the weekly cycle, roughly seven months low to low. Since 2018, Bitcoin has run fourteen weekly cycles in a row, every one landing within about five weeks of the others. That held through a pandemic, a bull market, an exchange collapse, the ETFs and a tariff tantrum. Before 2018 the clock was looser. It got steadier as Bitcoin grew up.

A cycle low has a date, not a depth.

When the big clock and the small one disagree, as they did this October, our read is that the small one wins. The four-year low has to land where the weekly clock allows: June, or January. It was never 25 October.

What history said

In September we pointed out that each time the 50-day crossed above the 200-day coming off a bottom (2019, 2020, 2023), a double-digit drop followed within weeks. If the past repeated, the deepest version pointed to around $61,500. That was a reference, not a target.

The pullback came right on cue, but it was small: the deepest was just under 9%, less than half the depth of 2023’s. Price never came near $61,500. History rhymed on the timing, not on the size.

Behind the scenes: when MANTIS first flagged October’s daily low as confirmed, it was reading a candle that hadn’t closed yet. We waited for the close before calling it. That’s now fixed: since version 14.0.13, a daily low only confirms on a finished candle, and the deepest unconfirmed candidate is shown as a white dot until it does.

What would break the pattern

Can the shrinking reverse? It has happened before, just not in Bitcoin. Gold peaked in 2011 and took nearly nine years to close a month above that high again. Then the buyer changed: central banks started buying in size, and the old ceiling stopped mattering.

Opinion, labelled as such: if a new kind of buyer turns up for Bitcoin, we think the depth shows it before the clock does. Shallow pullbacks, higher lows, a January low that holds well clear of June. Which is roughly what the last few months have looked like. But one quiet autumn isn’t a new buyer. It’s a hint, at most.

The test

Unchanged. The next weekly cycle low is due 11 January – 8 February 2027.

Above $57,800: June was the bottom. Four months early, and in the window.
Below it: we’re still hunting, and the window runs on into March.

The diary

To 9 November: MicroStrategy’s weekly cycle low window.
9 November: the first Hooligan entry window opens (RENDER). The exit rules go public before it, in the next video.
Second half of December: Bitcoin’s next daily cycle low.
11 January – 8 February 2027: Bitcoin’s weekly cycle low. The one that settles it.

▶ Watch the full video: youtube.com/watch?v=xG7H8udvnSw

Important Disclaimer This post and the video it accompanies are for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. MANTIS is software built to test and research cycle-timing strategies; it is not a signal service. The historical patterns in this post, including the four-year spacing and the golden-cross pullbacks, are references to past behaviour, not forecasts or targets. The view on a new kind of buyer is opinion and is labelled as such. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and only ever risk what you can afford to lose.

The date was never the point. The window was.

Build in the bear. Sell in the bull.